ELLENDALE, Del. - Since 2015 Delmarva has dealt with what feels like a surge in tornadoes. In that time, 28 tornadoes have torn paths of destruction through the region. This comes to an average of 3 tornadoes per year, a 55% increase over the 1950 through 2014 annual tornado average of 2 per year.
CoastTV wanted to find out if this increase is actually significant and something that people on Delmarva should be concerned about. We spoke with a severe weather expert at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, but they said they weren’t so sure.
“It may be the generational event, it could actually be becoming more frequent, but when you are looking at something that you only have a handful of cases on the record, it’s really hard to know what the true frequency of them are.”, explained Dr. Harold Brooks.
While this recent period has certainly been active, poor record keeping for tornadoes, in prior decades, make it difficult to discern any long-term increases.
Six of the tornadoes since 2015 have attained a strength of EF-2 or greater meaning winds have reached 111 miles per hour or higher. This has also raised the question, if tornadoes are getting stronger here along the coast.
Sarah Johnson, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service explained to CoastTV that tornado strengths are likely not increasing, but a human factor may be creating this perception.
“Increase in development. If you have more things that are in harms way of a tornado, there is more damage indicators, so there is more of a risk that we could see damage that we just wouldn’t have seen if it was an undeveloped area.”, explained Johnson.
Whether or not tornadoes are becoming more frequent or stronger, it has had no impact on the very real impacts that people on Delmarva have felt over the last several years.
Some of the most recent events include the deadly EF-3 tornado on April 1st in northwestern Sussex County, a tornado that tore through Milford in 2021, a tornado outbreak during the passage of Hurricane Isaias in 2020, and an EF-2 tornado that ravaged homes in Laurel in 2019. Tornadoes have occurred in every season since 2015.
It’s extremely important that people on Delmarva remain prepared for tornadoes throughout the year. One of the best ways to prepare is to have a family safety plan, where you discuss with every family member where you will go in the event of a Tornado Warning.