MARYLAND- The 2025 Blue Crab Advisory Report shows a significant drop in the Chesapeake Bay’s blue crab population. Yet, scientists say the species is not being overfished, according to the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee.
This year’s report, based on data from the 2024–25 Winter Dredge Survey, estimates the overall population at 238 million crabs—a sharp decline from 317 million in 2024, and the second-lowest count since the survey began in 1990. Despite the decline, the population remains within acceptable biological limits.
The number of juvenile crabs dropped to 103 million, the third-lowest estimate since 1990. Adult female crabs totaled 108 million, above the minimum threshold of 72.5 million but well below the target of 196 million. Male crabs saw the most dramatic decline, falling to 26 million—the lowest level recorded since 1990.
“We are looking forward to seeing the results of the current blue crab benchmark stock assessment to see if it can provide insight into the changing dynamics in the Bay,” said Mandy Bromilow, blue crab program manager for the Maryland Department of Natural Resources.
The Chesapeake Bay program continues to manage female crab harvest rates conservatively. In 2024, only 22% of female crabs were harvested, which is well below the target of 28% and significantly under the limit of 37%. The male harvest rate was estimated at 30%, just under the 34% threshold that may trigger further conservation measures.
According to the report, the total harvest in 2024 was 42.5 million pounds—far below the long-term average of 59 million pounds—further confirming that overfishing is not the main factor driving population declines.
The Winter Dredge Survey suggests environmental factors, including cold temperatures, low salinity, declining underwater grass beds, and rising predator populations like blue catfish and red drum, are likely playing a larger role in reduced recruitment and overall abundance.
Winter mortality was 4%—higher than in recent years but still below the long-term average of 5.98%.
The Chesapeake Bay Program and its partners say they are now preparing a new benchmark stock assessment, the first major update since 2011. The assessment, due in early 2026, will help determine if the current biological reference points used to gauge the health of the population need to be updated.
Jamie Green, commissioner of the Virginia Marine Resources Commission, emphasized a measured approach. “Our adaptive management approach is designed to account for natural variability in the population, ensuring that we don’t overreact to short-term fluctuations,” Green said.
As part of the broader Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, fisheries managers aim to maintain a sustainable blue crab population and ensure accountability in both commercial and recreational harvests. These efforts will be included in an updated agreement guiding management efforts beyond 2025, with draft revisions open for public feedback beginning July 1.
“We remain committed to supporting science-based approaches to maintain a healthy blue crab population,” said Ronald Owens, executive secretary of the Potomac River Fisheries Commission. “The focus will remain on collaborative efforts that support a stable crab fishery while balancing ecological health and the needs of those who depend on it.”